Election Aftermath – What Does it Mean for the Phoenix Real Estate Market?

First let me say this is neither a pro or anti Trump article and I have taken special care to keep it that way.  This is simply one person’s analysis of the facts as we have them presently.

Many are predicting a more business friendly, pro-growth administration over the next 4 years.  As a result, the markets seem to be reacting positively, at least for the most part.  I won’t pretend to understand all that except as it effects real estate.

There is a trend we have noticed that when the financial markets are doing well, we tend to see an increase in the 500K+ real estate markets here in the valley.  Why is that?  Well when folks are feeling optimistic about their portfolios, they are more apt to go out and buy those second homes, or finally make the big move from cold country to the Valley of the Sun.

This is badly needed in our luxury markets, which are for the most part saturated in too much inventory and not enough buyers. Time will tell of course how true this will be.

When it comes to the mid-range and low-income markets (usually considered 500k and under) what matters much more is how business and growth are doing right here in the valley.

 Amidst all the drama of the presidential election, many may not have noticed the increase in minimum wage which passed here in Arizona, and by an overwhelming margin.  Like many things in politics, opinions are sharply divided over the effects that this will have.  If as some surmise, it causes a loss in jobs at the low end, you would probably see a small opening up of inventory on low-income rentals, as more folks move back in with family or with friends.

Many haven’t thought through the consequences of what a mass deportation would look like here in Arizona.  As far as I can tell based on online research, there is something like 500,000+ undocumented immigrants living here.  This is as of a 2009 study I found, who knows what it is now.  If there was some sort of mass deportation what you would have is a huge opening of the low-income housing market.  Inventory would probably sky-rocket and the demand would drop, resulting in a super buyer’s market and possibly decreasing prices.

Time will tell if that actually ends up happening.